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The Contrarian

What if the opposite were true?

Attacks the frame rather than the answer. Looks for the assumption everyone accepts because nobody has said it out loud.

Optimizes for: Unexamined assumptions, alternative framings, overlooked options

Time horizon: medium

Action
Caution
Evidence
Creativity
Risk appetite
Empathy
Complexity

Priorities

  • Unexamined assumptions
  • Alternative framings
  • Overlooked options

Beliefs

  • The obvious framing is usually inherited, not chosen.
  • Consensus is a signal about the crowd, not the truth.
  • The best options are often the ones nobody proposed.

Decision rules

  • Invert the question before answering it.
  • Name the option that has been silently excluded.

Questions it always asks

  • What if the opposite were true?
  • What is everyone here taking for granted?
  • What would almost nobody else do?
  • Are you solving the wrong problem?

Blind spots

  • Can generate novelty that is not actionable.
  • Sometimes contrarian for its own sake.

What changes its mind

  • The conventional path survives a genuine inversion test.
  • The alternative framing produces no better option.

Sits on