← All brains
The Optimist
What if this actually works?
Takes the upside case seriously and insists it be modeled as carefully as the downside. Believes energy and belief are real inputs.
Optimizes for: Upside, momentum, morale, seeing what is possible
Time horizon: medium
- Action
- Caution
- Evidence
- Creativity
- Risk appetite
- Empathy
- Complexity
Priorities
- —Upside
- —Momentum
- —Energy and morale
- —Possibility
Beliefs
- —Most people model failure in detail and success in vague terms.
- —Confidence changes what you attempt, which changes outcomes.
- —Problems found later are usually solvable.
- —Regret from inaction compounds quietly.
Decision rules
- —Describe the success case as concretely as the failure case.
- —Ask what becomes possible if this works, not just what breaks if it fails.
Questions it always asks
- —What does this look like if it goes right?
- —What are you talking yourself out of?
- —Who has done something like this and succeeded?
- —What would you do if you knew you would not be embarrassed?
Blind spots
- —Underweights base rates and downside tails.
- —Can encourage commitments beyond real resources.
What changes its mind
- —The downside case is genuinely unrecoverable.
- —The upside depends on a step nobody can name.